
#12 SP · Tigers
Height
6'3"
Weight
212 lbs
Age
29
College
Auburn
Draft
2018, Rd 1, #1
Experience
5 yrs
Bats/Throws
R/R
Grade Casey Mize
Your grade joins the crowd-sourced Fan Verdict.
On the field, Casey Mize grades out as a strong SP for Tigers (B- Performance). That places him 104th of 252 graded starting pitchers. The contract is harder to defend: the Contract Value Index calls it fairly priced (C+), with the cost outrunning the output. The public read is mixed (C Sentiment), drawn from current news and social signal rather than the box score.
| Year | Team | GP | ERA | W-L | K | WHIP | IP | SV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Career | ![]() | 98 | 4.0047846 | 25-28 | 414 | 1.2570062 | 0.0 | 0 |
| 2026 | ![]() | 9 | 2.27 | 2-3 | 49 | 0.97 | 47.2 | 0 |
| 2025 |
Length
1 year
Total Value
$6.2M
Guaranteed
$3.7M
AAV
$6.2M/yr
Casey Mize delivered the kind of production that earns a C+ Contract Value Index against the SP pay band. At $6.15M AAV on a one-year deal, he's priced as a mid-rotation anchor rather than a front-line starter—fair value for a 29-year-old six-year veteran whose 2026 campaign has been defined by flashes of genuine stuff (49 strikeouts across nine games) undercut by injury setbacks and bullpen misfortune that robbed him of victories. His B- performance grade reflects the quality of what he's showing on the mound, but the C sentiment grade captures the real friction: Detroit's fanbase and media are caught between cautious optimism about his development and legitimate skepticism rooted in a career pattern of promise followed by setbacks. The Tigers' recent roster moves—adding depth across multiple positions and the bullpen—signal a front office hedging rather than fully backing Mize as a cornerstone piece, which speaks to how the organization itself views his value within the context of a 28-40 team in the regular-season stretch run. Until he can string together consistent, healthy innings without relying on bullpen perfection to salvage outings, the Contract Value Index lands squarely in that middle ground: neither overpaid for what he's produced nor a bargain that suggests imminent breakout, just a one-year prove-it deal for a guy whose ceiling remains higher than his reliability has earned him.
Other same-position deals the Contract Value Index also places in the C band — a quick read on where Casey's contract sits relative to comparable money.
Casey Mize ranks 104th of 252 graded starting pitchers by performance. That slots Casey between Carlos Carrasco (B-) just ahead and Nolan McLean (B-) just behind.
Graded higher
Carlos CarrascoBravesB-Kodai SengaMetsB-Doug NikhazyWhite SoxB-Graded lower
Nolan McLeanMetsAuto-moderated fan forum with 5-minute speaker turns
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Casey Mize is a player in his 5th MLB season listed at SP for the Tigers. FanVerdicts covers every MLB player, team, GM, and transaction — and puts your verdict on all of it. Sign in to cast your Fan Verdict on Casey Mize, see where the crowd lands, and argue the call. FanVerdicts also brings its own read — performance, sentiment, and Contract Value Index — as one honest input alongside the crowd's. Where FanVerdicts has weighed in so far: Contract Value Index C+, Performance B-, Sentiment C.
The crowd's Fan Verdict moves in real time as fans vote on this profile. FanVerdicts' own read updates as new data lands — performance recalculates when MLB game stats post, sentiment shifts with media coverage and fan discussion, and the Contract Value Index recomputes when contract terms change. Contract details below show the structure (years, total value, average annual value, guarantees) behind the Contract Value Index read.
For league-wide context, the MLB hub has team rankings, GM report cards, the transactions feed, and live scoreboards. The MLB player rankings page sorts every active player by performance and contract value within their position.
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| 28 |
| 3.87 |
| 14-6 |
| 139 |
| 1.27 |
| 149.0 |
| 0 |
| 2024 | ![]() | 22 | 4.49 | 2-6 | 78 | 1.47 | 102.1 | 0 |
| 2022 | ![]() | 2 | 5.40 | 0-1 | 4 | 1.50 | 10.0 | 0 |
| 2021 | ![]() | 30 | 3.71 | 7-9 | 118 | 1.14 | 150.1 | 0 |
| 2020 | ![]() | 7 | 6.99 | 0-3 | 26 | 1.48 | 28.1 | 0 |
How Casey Mize plays at SP earns him a B- performance grade. The 29-year-old right-hander is posting respectable stuff metrics this season—49 strikeouts across nine games in 2026—that place him squarely in the above-average starter tier, though injury interruptions and a modest 2-win record prevent him from cracking the elite tier. His strikeout production stands as his clearest strength; the velocity and movement that made him a first-overall pick in 2018 remain present and effective, evident in both his early-season brilliance and the continued whiff rate. The central vulnerability remains durability and consistency—a right groin injury sidelined him in late May just as he was building momentum, and even when healthy, he's been victimized by thin run support and relief corps failures that erased what should have been a quality start. At this stage of his career, Mize sits in that treacherous contract-year limbo: a six-year veteran with legitimate stuff capable of franchise-starter-level performances, but a track record of flashes followed by setbacks that has left Detroit's fanbase hopeful yet skeptical. With the Tigers struggling at 29-40 and the stretch run ahead, Mize's ability to stay healthy and string together consistent innings will determine whether he finally capitalizes on his immense pedigree or remains a cautionary tale of unfulfilled promise from the top of a draft class.
The talk around Casey Mize this stretch nets a C sentiment grade. Detroit's media narrative is built on a tense contradiction: Mize is a first-overall pick from 2018 stepping into a contract year with genuine stuff on display—he struck out 49 batters across nine games in 2026—yet he remains trapped in a cycle of flashes followed by setbacks that has defined his six-year career. The dominant framing centers on cautious, guarded optimism tempered by legitimate frustration; camps reports flagged odd injury concerns heading into the season, and then reality delivered: a right groin injury that sidelined him alongside closer Kenley Jansen in late May, erasing whatever momentum a brilliant early outing had built. The gap between his B- performance grade and his C sentiment grade tells the real story—his on-field production is legitimately encouraging, but injuries and bullpen misfortune (a quality start spoiled when the relief corps stumbled) have made fans skeptical that the promise will finally materialize, especially with the Tigers sitting at 28-40 and having responded to early struggles by quietly adding depth pieces rather than signaling confidence in any single rotation piece. Until Mize can string together consistent, healthy innings down the stretch run, the narrative stays locked in that frustrating middle ground: one step forward, one injury backward, and a fanbase that wants to believe but has learned not to.
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